The stock of the country's largest passenger vehicle maker, Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL), has been hitting successive all-time highs over the past three trading sessions. The rally in the scrip has helped it notch over a 21 per cent gain since the start of February, outperforming the National Stock Exchange Nifty Auto Index. The gains for the leader of small passenger cars have been more recent, as the company still trails the Nifty Auto over one- and two-year periods.
Traction for its specialty portfolio, a strong showing in the domestic market, and better regulatory compliance are positives for the country's largest pharmaceutical (pharma) company, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries. Given the triggers, some brokerages have increased their earnings per share estimates and target price for 2024-25 (FY25). This should sustain the momentum for the stock, which has been one of the major pharma gainers in 2023-24 (FY24), rising 57 per cent. It is currently trading at Rs 1,547 per share.
From its lows this month, the stock of Sona BLW Precision Forgings is up 10 per cent on better-than-expected results. The stock rose by 4 per cent in the trading session on Tuesday after Japan's Nikkei Group said the Indian automotive component major has topped its rankings in terms of competitive advantage. The rankings are based on sales, profit margin, capital expenditure, research and development, and market capitalisation.
Berger Paints, the country's second-largest decorative paint maker, continued to outperform its peers and gain market share in the 2023-24 (FY24) October-December quarter (third quarter, or Q3). The company posted a consolidated revenue growth of 7 per cent compared to the year-ago quarter, surpassing Asian Paints (5.4 per cent) and Kansai Nerolac Paints (5.7 per cent).
The Street's optimism on India's largest listed automotive maker by market capitalisation is not misplaced, given the robust wholesale performance in recent months and the strong 2023-24 (FY24) October-December (Q3) results.
Hindustan Unilever's Q3FY24 performance was lacklustre, with both sales and operating profit barely moving from the year-ago period due to price cuts and higher advertising costs. Besides weak demand, the FMCG (fast-moving consumer goods) major is facing increased competitive pressures, particularly from regional players, which, coupled with a slow recovery in rural markets, could put revenues under pressure going forward. Margins are expected to remain range-bound as benefits from falling raw material costs are expected to be neutralised by rising promotional budgets.
A weaker-than-expected sales performance, concerns about higher competitive intensity in the current year, and earning cuts by some brokerages have weighed on the stock of the country's largest paint maker, Asian Paints. While the Q3 volume show was slightly below expectations, the company's operational and bottom line beat estimates, benefiting from the falling raw material costs. The stock ended the day with a decline of over 2 per cent at Rs 3,175 apiece.
The chemicals sector's recovery could be delayed until FY25 if the current trends of weak demand and flat pricing continue. Following a subdued September quarter, the revenue and profit performance of listed chemicals companies are anticipated to fall short of initial expectations of an improvement. Despite some price stability, the demand trajectory remains uncertain.
Even as the near-term outlook for the quick service restaurant (QSR) industry remains muted, brokerages are positive about the prospects of Sapphire Foods India. Their preference for the QSR chain comes on the back of the steady performance of Kentucky Fried Chicken (KFC), superior execution and reasonable valuations. The Sapphire Foods stock is up 11 per cent since the start of November.
From its lows in December, the stock of Tata Motors is up about 15 per cent. The gains came on the back of better than expected December volumes in its UK-based subsidiary Jaguar Land Rover (JLR). This coupled with gradual recovery in the global passenger vehicle demand, improving profitability due to product mix and lower commodity costs are expected to be key positives for the company.
The stock of Godrej Consumer Products Limited (GCPL) fell about 3.7 per cent in trade after its Q3FY24 earnings disappointed brokerages and led to downgrades. Further, the stock, after a 15 per cent run-up over the past month prior to Monday's correction, had already factored in the upside from the business front. Its peer in the consumer space, Marico, too, saw a 4 per cent drop in its stock price.
Despite multiple headwinds at the start of 2023, the Indian markets delivered a strong performance, posting 19-20 per cent growth for the year. Even as new records were set, investor sentiment remains strong going into 2024, given the lower inflation, expectations of steady to lower interest rates, higher economic growth, and strong inflows. However, the overriding concern for most brokerages is valuations.
Dabur India has been the worst performer in the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) space this year (CY23), posting a 1 per cent decline even as its peer index, the Nifty FMCG, has delivered returns of over 29 per cent in this period.
There is no near-term respite for the country's largest fast-moving consumer goods maker, Hindustan Unilever (HUL), which is facing multiple challenges on the growth front. With demand showing no signs of improvement, especially in the rural segment, the October-December quarter (Q3) of 2023-24 (FY24) is likely to be similar to the previous quarter, with volume growth in the low single digits. The stock, which is down 7 per cent over the past year compared to the 11 per cent jump for the S&P BSE Sensex, could underperform the benchmark in the near term as well.
The stock of fast-moving consumer goods major Tata Consumer Products has been reaching new all-time highs on better-than-expected results for the July-September quarter (second quarter, or Q2), strong growth in the food business, and margin gains in the beverage/international business. Most brokerages are positive on the stock, given growth prospects, and believe that rich valuations are justified. The near-term trigger has been the robust operational performance in Q2.
With sentiment for the automotive (auto) sector turning positive, stocks of two-wheeler auto majors have been hitting their 52-week highs. Hero MotoCorp, Bajaj Auto, TVS Motor Company, and Eicher Motors recently reached their yearly highs on strong sales in the festival season and the expectation of faster growth rates ahead. Since the start of this month, listed two-wheeler majors have delivered returns in the 12-17 per cent range, compared to the 7 per cent gains for the S&P BSE Auto Index and 3 per cent for the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex.
UPL, the country's largest agrochemical company, had a weak July-September quarter (Q2), reporting a sharp fall in revenues across geographies. Overall, the revenues were down 19 per cent on the back of lower agrochemical prices and inventory destocking. While the overall volumes were down 7 per cent, prices fell by 15 per cent. Volume decline in the European market was on the back of high channel inventory and product bans while in India the fall by 27 per cent was on account of muted demand for segments such as cotton and pulses.
Rise in input costs, inventory write-off, and pricing pressures led to a drop in gross margins. Higher competitive pressures led to cuts in operating profit margins and earnings estimates for FY24 and FY25. Most brokerages have a 'neutral' or a 'reduce' rating on the stock on account of valuations.
Even though Bharat Forge's performance in the July-September quarter broadly met Street estimates and defence orders are on the rise, the subdued outlook for its global business has prompted some brokerages to adopt a cautious stance on the company. Analysts have reduced the company's earnings per share (EPS) estimates to account for the slow recovery of its overseas subsidiaries. Valuations are also trading at long-term averages, which could limit potential upsides.
InterGlobe Aviation, the operator of India's leading airline IndiGo, delivered a better than expected performance across most parameters in Q2FY24. The company posted its fourth consecutive quarter of net profit of Rs 188 crore. It had reported a loss of Rs 1,583 crore in the same quarter a year ago.
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